diff --git a/internal/routing/policy.go b/internal/routing/policy.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1ea09d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/internal/routing/policy.go
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+package routing
+
+// Decision is the route picked for a single skill call.
+type Decision int
+
+const (
+	DecideLocal Decision = iota
+	DecideClaude
+)
+
+func (d Decision) String() string {
+	if d == DecideLocal {
+		return "local"
+	}
+	return "claude"
+}
+
+// Policy holds the floor/ceil thresholds for routing decisions.
+//
+// Rules (in order):
+//
+//  1. passRate == nil           → DecideLocal (default-to-local for cost-routable skills)
+//  2. *passRate >= Floor        → DecideLocal (trust local)
+//  3. *passRate <  Ceil         → DecideClaude (don't trust local)
+//  4. otherwise (sample band)   → requestHash low bit picks: 0=local, 1=claude
+type Policy struct {
+	Floor float64
+	Ceil  float64
+}
+
+// Decide returns the routing decision for a single call.
+// requestHash is consulted only when passRate is in the sample band [Ceil, Floor).
+func (p Policy) Decide(passRate *float64, requestHash uint64) Decision {
+	if passRate == nil {
+		return DecideLocal
+	}
+	if *passRate >= p.Floor {
+		return DecideLocal
+	}
+	if *passRate < p.Ceil {
+		return DecideClaude
+	}
+	if requestHash&1 == 0 {
+		return DecideLocal
+	}
+	return DecideClaude
+}
diff --git a/internal/routing/policy_test.go b/internal/routing/policy_test.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..86d9841
--- /dev/null
+++ b/internal/routing/policy_test.go
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+package routing_test
+
+import (
+	"testing"
+
+	"github.com/mathiasbq/supervisor/internal/routing"
+	"github.com/stretchr/testify/assert"
+)
+
+func ptr(f float64) *float64 { return &f }
+
+func TestPolicyDecide(t *testing.T) {
+	p := routing.Policy{Floor: 0.9, Ceil: 0.7}
+
+	cases := []struct {
+		name     string
+		passRate *float64
+		hash     uint64
+		want     routing.Decision
+	}{
+		{"null pass rate → local", nil, 0, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"null pass rate, hash irrelevant → local", nil, 0xDEADBEEF, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"at floor → local", ptr(0.9), 0, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"above floor → local", ptr(0.95), 0, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"below ceil → claude", ptr(0.5), 0, routing.DecideClaude},
+		{"at ceil → sample-band even-hash → local", ptr(0.7), 0, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"sample band, even hash → local", ptr(0.8), 2, routing.DecideLocal},
+		{"sample band, odd hash → claude", ptr(0.8), 3, routing.DecideClaude},
+	}
+
+	for _, tc := range cases {
+		t.Run(tc.name, func(t *testing.T) {
+			assert.Equal(t, tc.want, p.Decide(tc.passRate, tc.hash))
+		})
+	}
+}